Are you making the best decisions?

What you see is not what others see. We inhabit parallel worlds of perception, bounded by our interests and experience. What is obvious to some is invisible to others. - George Monbiot

Do you sometimes feel that you are trying your best to make effective decisions and yet somehow you miss some important information? Are you sure that you have got all the information required to land on a decision? Do you think that sometimes it is a good idea to not trust our brains? Do you often find yourself a victim of arguments? Do you know how cognitive biases influence our decisions?

What is cognitive bias?

We make hundreds of decisions every day. Most of the time, our decisions are influenced by how we perceive the world rather than how the world really is. Cognitive bias is the error in judgment or decision-making process owing to our perception of information around us. Cognitive biases are ubiquitous - you’ll be bewildered to see the number that science has uncovered.

If we want to make impartial decisions, we would need to train our minds to be mindful of all the information. We want to make decisions based on all the information rather than the information that is only available to us.

How do we eliminate these biases? Like any maths problem, the first step towards solving it is being conscious of it. That is, the first step towards making better decisions is making ourselves aware that cognitive biases exist and that they intercept our decision making at times. The next step is ensuring that these biases are not clouding our judgment. Let us get acquainted with some of these cognitive biases and get one step closer to making better decisions.

1. Confirmation bias - It is the most common cognitive bias that clouds human judgment. It is the tendency to interpret, support or recall ideas in a way that conforms to our pre-existing notions. That is, even after contradictory evidence is available, the human brain would reject that evidence and keep supporting pre-existing beliefs. Our reality is limited to the extent of what we believe in. For example, if you believe that our planet Earth is not affected by global warming and evidence presented by science suggests otherwise, confirmation bias will reject the evidence and not change the pre-existing notion and continue to believe that everything is fine. Another example could be if you believe that women are bad drivers, confirmation bias would confirm this belief when you encounter a bad female driver, regardless of countless good female drivers you see during the day.

How do we eliminate this? Being aware of it is the first step in mitigating it. The second is to step outside our comfort zone and attempt to understand new perspectives or new beliefs. It is hard to change one’s beliefs, especially the beliefs that have been passed on from generations. But if we do not change our beliefs from time to time, we do not grow up. We are just being cognitively lazy if we stick to our beliefs and do not make an effort to understand the other side of the argument. It is important that we analyse both sides of an argument before landing on a decision. Further, to conquer this bias, it is important to actively seek information that contradicts our views and then analyse the information to form a judgement.

2. Ambiguity effect - The ambiguity bias is the bias when the decision-making process is affected by a lack of information. This means when information is scarce about available options, we tend to choose options that have more available information. I think of this as being risk-averse. When we are risk-averse, we tend to avoid options that present to us as ‘not familiar’ or high risk. For example, when picking between different food cuisines, people generally avoid cuisines that they do not know anything about, even though the unknown cuisine might taste better to them. Another example could be exploring new places to travel/live. Generally, when people are offered a choice to live in the city they know about versus the city that they have no idea about, they choose the former, even though the unknown might be a much better or safer place to live.

How do we eliminate it? By seeking more clarity, by opening our minds to new possibilities, by removing the belief that just because something is unknown, it would lead to a bad outcome. We are familiar with these phrases “I do not know anything about this, what if it turns out bad?”, think about this - what if it becomes the best decision of your life? On a bigger scale, we might miss out on incredible opportunities by preferring to remain in our safe space, so seek more information!

3. Memory bias - Memories can be erroneous. The human brain does not store information as we see it and hence when information is recalled, it could be different to reality. So, when you have an argument with someone and hours later, if you find yourself arguing on who said what - ‘You said I am not a good person, you said abcd’ and the person says ‘I didn’t say that, please do not misquote me’, give them a benefit of doubt, bear in mind that memories are imprecise and what we are recalling might not be true. When the brain is trying to store information, not all information makes its way to permanent stores of information (the neocortex), as a result, when we are recalling information, our brain fills the gaps in memories. There are more aspects of this memory bias. One such is the misinformation effect, which occurs when an individual (who was present at some event) is presented with other inaccurate information after the event has occurred, this misinformation leads to contaminating the individual’s memories of that event. Memories could also be infected by questioning them. As such, when an individual recalls the memory of that event, it is inaccurate and impacted by the interference of misinformation. Eyewitnesses in legal proceedings might recall crystal clear information of the witnessed event, yet the testimony is sometimes taken with a grain of salt. This is mainly because of memory bias.

The first step towards not falling prey to memory biases is by acknowledging that these exist. Because memories are imperfect, it is hard to overcome this bias but analytical thinking, alertness, and scepticism while analysing and recalling memories go a long way in conquering this bias.

4. Actor-Observer Bias - Actor-observer bias is the tendency to blame one’s action on external circumstances while blaming others’ actions on internal factors such as attitude or personality. For instance, one might blame one’s own drinking habits on external circumstances such as socialising or peer pressure, while for others, one might simply say that they are addicted to alcohol. Similarly, one might blame traffic congestion as a cause of being late to something important but when it comes to others, one might simply blame the non-punctual personality of that person. During arguments, we tend to think that we were only reacting to another person’s actions, that is our actions were based on external factors (in this example, the actions of the other person), while we think that the other person’s behaviour is solely because of their personality.

How to eliminate it? Stop being judgmental, we are all human beings - that means neither of us is perfect and most of us are trying our best to do the right thing. Sometimes, while doing these things, external factors can affect us and sometimes it could totally be internal. And as such, the focus should be on solving the problem rather than blaming anyone.

5. Bandwagon effect - As the name suggests, the bandwagon effect is the tendency to do things that many other people in the society/group are doing, regardless of one’s own set of choices. I think of the bandwagon effect as a way to be more socially acceptable in society. Humans are social beings and in order to make us more likeable and more socially accepting, we start doing things that other people in society do. However, every individual has their own set of beliefs and as such, the bandwagon effect could lead to not so favouring outcomes in many circumstances. We might adopt some lifestyle choices from other people that are contradictory to our beliefs/circumstances, for instance, having a baby. It is not suitable/preferable for everyone to have a kid, yet they choose to do it because everyone around them is doing it. Another example is falling prey to trends. “There is a new bag that this xyz brand has released and everyone I know has it and I need it” or “this haircut is really trendy these days, I think I should get it” are some examples of jumping on a bandwagon.

How do we eliminate this? The first thing is by evaluating our beliefs. We must know what our beliefs are, how they have been shaped and why we believe in them. The next is analysing if we need to change our beliefs. Then it is understanding our decisions and ensuring that they align with our beliefs. If the goal of the majority of people in your friend circle is to ensure that their Instagram is updated with the latest trends and they need to buy all the latest stuff for that, while your goal is making sure that your bills are paid or that you do not gratuitously spend your money, then you should not worry about jumping on that bandwagon.

These are just five of many cognitive biases that influence our decision-making process. These affect the majority of the population, so chances are that you are amongst them as well. Maybe today, try to think about how these are affecting your decision-making process and what steps you can take to eliminate them. The next time you have an argument with someone, think about how confirmation bias or memory bias or actor-observer bias is intercepting your judgment.

I will try to cover more cognitive biases in my articles in the future so watch this space. If you are interested in diving deep into any of these, please get in touch - would love to chat about these.